Recently, I came across an interesting article published in the journal Significance, an official magazine of the Royal Statistical Society, the American Statistical Association, and the Statistical Society of Australia. Being a Chinese American, I’m always interested in learning about Chinese culture, in addition to the language. This article explored something I’ve heard a lot from my family but never thought about deeply: Do dragon years really make people get married or have babies more?
What Is This All About?
In Chinese astrology, each lunar year is assigned one of 12 animals. The dragon is considered the most powerful and auspicious. Growing up, I often heard my relatives say it’s best to get married or have children in a dragon year because it brings luck and prosperity.
The article shared the author’s personal story about how his Aunty Li would always nag him about getting married. But in the Year of the Dragon (2024), she suddenly stopped. Why? Because planning a wedding or having a baby in a dragon year takes time, and it was already too late for him to give her a “dragon wedding” or “dragon baby.” This story made me smile because it reminded me of my own family gatherings.
What Did the Research Find?
Researchers looked at birth and marriage data from 1970 to 2023 in six countries: Singapore, China, Malaysia, the UK, Kenya, and Mexico. Here are some highlights that stood out to me:
- In Singapore, there was a strong positive dragon effect. The fertility rate increased by about 0.17 children per woman in dragon years, which is a noticeable boost.
- In China, surprisingly, there wasn’t a big dragon effect overall. The researchers suggested this could be because of the one-child policy (1979–2015). Families couldn’t plan for a second dragon baby even if they wanted to.
- In Malaysia, there was a small positive effect, but it wasn’t as strong as Singapore’s.
- In countries with tiny Chinese populations (UK, Kenya, Mexico), there was no real dragon effect.
- Snake years, which follow dragon years and are considered less lucky, showed slightly negative effects on fertility, though these were small and not consistent across countries.
What About Marriage?
The study also looked at marriage rates among ethnic Chinese in Singapore. They expected an increase in dragon years, but the results were mixed. There was no clear pattern, and some dragon years actually had fewer marriages. So, while having a dragon baby seems to matter, a dragon wedding might not be as big of a deal in the data (even though aunties still care a lot about it!).
Why Does This Matter?
For me, reading this was a cool reminder of how cultural beliefs can actually show up in real data. It also shows how statistical models can help us separate superstition from reality. In Singapore, the effect was strong enough that even the prime minister encouraged citizens to “add a little dragon” in his Lunar New Year speech.
At the same time, the study reminded me that traditions, culture, and policies (like China’s one-child policy) all interact to shape what people decide to do with their lives.
Final Thoughts
As a student interested in computational linguistics and social data, I find studies like this inspiring. They connect language, culture, demographics, and data analysis in a meaningful way. Plus, it makes me think about how traditions continue to shape decisions, even in modern societies.
I wonder if my parents also hoped I would be a dragon baby. (Spoiler: I’m not, but at least I wasn’t born in the Year of the Snake either!)
If you’re curious about Chinese culture, statistics, or demographic trends, I highly recommend reading the full article here (if your school has access). Let me know if you want a follow-up post explaining how the statistical model in the paper worked.
— Andrew
CompLing Insights 